I also visited Kibbutz Nir Oz,
which lost a quarter of its approximately 400 members to murder and
kidnapping. I saw bedroom floors and bunk-bed mattresses soaked in
blood. I saw incinerated homes and graffiti in Arabic taking ownership
of the crime: “Al-Qassam Brigade.” I met Hadas Calderon, who lost her
mother and her niece on Oct. 7, and whose two children and ex-husband
are now, as best as she knows, hostages in Gaza. “The world has to
scream,” she said. “Bring the children home now.”
That’s a point
that needs to factor in to any thoughtful analysis of the Jewish state’s
predicament. There’s an asymmetry in this conflict, but it’s not about
the preponderance of military power. Israel’s goal in this war is
political and strategic: to defeat Hamas as the reigning power in Gaza,
even though there will be unavoidable cost in innocent lives, since
Hamas operates among civilians. But Hamas’s goal is only secondarily
political. Fundamentally, it’s homicidal: to end Israel as a state by
slaughtering every Jew within it. How can critics of Israeli policy
insist on a unilateral cease-fire or other forms of restraint against
Hamas if they can’t offer a credible answer to a reasonable Israeli
question: How can we go on like this?
The day after the Bachars’ funeral, I
traveled to Camp Iftach, a small military base a few hundred yards
north of the Gaza border. It was Oct. 25, a day after Hamas had attempted, unsuccessfully, a seaborne infiltration of the nearby beachside kibbutz of Zikim. The entire area was on high alert.
Getting
to the camp meant driving my car at high speed from military checkpoint
to checkpoint, tailing an Israeli Army Humvee on sandy roads surrounded
by fields burned to ash by falling rockets. The camp itself was a
collection of concrete bunkers, with hundreds of shell casings from the
pitched battles of Oct. 7 littering the pavement outside.
One
of the senior officers on base is Lt. Col. Tom Elgarat, whose careworn
face looks much older than his 41 years. When I met him, he was getting
his soldiers ready for the ground invasion that would begin a few days
later.
“This cannot go on,” he said. “If you have to lose life, if you have to take life, this cannot go on.”
By “this,” Elgarat meant the matzav, the
situation, in which Israelis now find themselves. He lives in Tel Aviv,
where his wife was trying to hold things together while schools were
closed and the kids were home. But he grew up in Nir Oz. One of his
cousins there, he says, is “alive by pure chance,” having been
barricaded with her family for hours. “I want to look in her face and
say, you can go back to your house.” Two of his uncles and one of his
best friends are among the hostages.
The
issue of Israel’s internally displaced people gets short shrift in most
news accounts. But it’s central to the way in which Israelis perceive
the war. There are now more than 150,000 Israelis — proportionately the
equivalent of about 5.3 million Americans — who were forced out of their
homes by the attacks of Oct. 7. Small cities like Sderot, near Gaza,
and Kiryat Shmona, near Lebanon, are now mostly ghost towns and will
remain that way if the government can’t secure its borders.
Should
that happen, sizable parts of Israel’s already minuscule territory
would become essentially uninhabitable. That, in turn, would mean the
failure of the Jewish state to maintain a safe homeland, presaging the
end of Zionism itself. It’s why Israelis think of this war as
existential and why they’re willing to put aside their fury at Benjamin
Netanyahu and his ministers, for a while, to win the war.
Will they win?
If
the question is whether Israel will be able to defeat Hamas, the answer
is almost certainly yes: Israeli military planners have been war-gaming
an invasion of Gaza for decades and, despite the intelligence blunders
of Oct. 7, have tools and tactics that can flush Hamas’s fighters out of
their maze of tunnels. Nor is the Israeli public likely to be swayed by
civilian casualties into supporting any kind of cease-fire in the
military campaign until Hamas is defeated and the hostages are returned.
Israelis spent 18 years watching Hamas turn to its military advantage
every Israeli concession — including free electricity, cash transfers of Qatari funds, work permits for Gazans, thousands of truckloads of humanitarian goods. Israelis won’t get fooled again.
But
while Israelis are still processing the horror from the south, the
threat of war looms on every side. Around the world, too many people are
showing their true colors when it comes to their feelings about Jews,
and darkness in the West has made it feel colder in Israel.
A
few days after my visit to Camp Iftach, I drove north to Metula, a
picturesque Israeli village on a finger of land surrounded on three
sides by Lebanon. Other than a handful of soldiers, it was mostly
deserted; it would almost surely be captured by Hezbollah in the early
hours of a full-scale conflict, which would make the Gaza front look
like child’s play.
In the West Bank,
nightly Israeli security raids against Hamas and allied terror cells in
cities like Jenin and Nablus are largely what stand in the way between
the unpopular and corrupt Palestinian Authority and a Hamas coup.
Compounding the tension is a sharp uptick in settler violence, with some
seeing the crisis as an “opportunity to vent their spleen with M-16s,”
as an Israeli reporter put it to me. Bezalel Smotrich, the far-right
finance minister, has even suggested effectively banning the Palestinian
olive harvest, ostensibly for security reasons. “That would be like
banning the Super Bowl,” the reporter observed. It would guarantee an
explosion.
And then there’s the wider
world. Vladimir Putin, whom Netanyahu did so much to court over more
than a decade, has all but openly thrown his support behind Hamas, in
part because of Russia’s deepening alliance with Hamas’s patrons in
Iran. In China, state-run and social media have veered sharply into open antisemitism.
In Turkey, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, with whom Israel had been
engaged in a careful rapprochement, has reverted to Islamist form.
“Hamas is not a terrorist organization,” he told members of his parliamentary group late last month, but a “mujahedeen liberation group struggling to protect its people and lands.”
Just
as frightening to many Israelis I spoke with was the turn against
Israel in the West, a turn that, increasingly, is nakedly pro-Hamas and
antisemitic. It’s visible in more than just the attempted firebombing of
a synagogue in Berlin or the chants of “gas the Jews” in Sydney,
Australia. It’s also in the sheer indifference among educated elites to
Israeli suffering — typified by college-age students tearing down campus
posters of kidnapped Israeli civilians.
“The
effort on campuses and progressive circles to equate Zionism with all
that is evil prepared the ground for the hardening belief that ‘the Jews
had it coming,’” Einat Wilf, a Harvard graduate and former member of
the Knesset for the Labor Party, told me. To many Israelis, there’s a
distinct echo of what happened at German universities beginning about a
century ago.
It may be that what
started near Gaza will end there, too. But there’s a growing sense among
Israelis, as well as many Jews in the diaspora, that what happened on
Oct. 7 may be the opening act of something much larger and worse:
another worldwide war against the Jews.
A few days after my visit to Camp Iftach,
as Israeli troops prepared to enter Gaza, I got a WhatsApp message from
Elgarat: “Tonight is the start of the changing process that will bring
Israel to a better place. But for my family and many friends, it is too
late. All I can do now is focus on the mission. After this is all done,
the time for sorrow and grief will come.”
Elgarat
had clarity of purpose. But for many Israelis, what comes next seems
much more muddled, especially politically. What can Israelis do about a
government whose machinations had already created more turmoil and
division than Israel had ever seen, whose incompetence and neglect had
given Hamas a free hand, yet seems immovable?
“Toppling
Bibi will be harder than toppling Hamas,” Anshel Pfeffer, a journalist
and the author of “Bibi,” an acclaimed biography of Netanyahu, told me
when I had dinner with him in Jerusalem.
Pfeffer’s
view isn’t widely shared among Israeli political analysts, who think
that massive protests or defections by Likud lawmakers or their
coalition partners will quickly bring down the government once the war
ends. My guess is that Pfeffer is right: The government, to adapt a line
often attributed to Ben Franklin, will hang together because otherwise
it will hang separately. And if one of the Oct. 7 lessons for many
Israelis is that a right-wing government failed, another lesson is that
right-wing ideology was vindicated, at least insofar as a Palestinian
state is concerned. If tens of thousands of Israelis were put at mortal
risk when Gaza became a quasi-state after Israel’s withdrawal in 2005,
what would it mean to put millions of Israelis at risk along much longer
borders if the same process were to be repeated in the West Bank?
That’s a thought that will weigh heavily on Israelis’ minds if there’s
even a whisper of a chance that Hamas or a similar group might come to
power.
Even so, it’s hard to overstate
the breadth of public disgust with Netanyahu — not only for his failure
to heed loud warnings from his generals before Oct. 7 about the
military’s diminished readiness, but even more so for his refusal to
take responsibility, much less apologize, for his role in the debacle.
Seventy-six percent of Israelis think he should resign,
according to a recent poll. Ministers can’t show their faces at
funerals, shivas or hospital waiting rooms for fear of being yelled at
and chased out.
Perhaps nobody feels
this disgust more acutely than Amir Tibon, a correspondent for the
left-leaning Israeli newspaper Haaretz. Tibon became internationally famous last month
after his family’s rescue, by his 62-year-old father, Noam (a retired
general), when his kibbutz was overrun by Hamas terrorists. “Saba higea”
— “Grandpa is here,” the words with which Amir’s 3-year-old daughter
greeted Noam after 10 hours of terrified silence in their safe room —
have since become words of pride and hope to Israelis desperately in
need of both.
I went to see Amir in a
kibbutz in the north, where he and his family were living with
relatives. Amir pointed to his shirt: borrowed from a cousin. His car:
also borrowed. His pants: from a giveaway rack collected by volunteers.
Amir hails from
that segment of Israeli society that Netanyahu and his allies had spent
the previous year demonizing: “elites,” “Ashkenazim,” “anarchists,”
“leftists.” It’s true that by the terms of Israel’s political discourse,
he and his neighbors tilted left; they had certainly been at the
forefront of efforts to stop Netanyahu’s efforts to destroy the power of
the Supreme Court. But it’s also true that on Oct. 7, it was largely
his segment of society that became the embodiment of Zionism, as both
its martyrs and its heroes.
I asked
Amir what needed to change going forward. His first answer: More people
would need permits to carry personal sidearms. “We were trained all our
lives to trust the government and trust the military,” he said. “After
this, people are going to trust themselves.”
His
second: “Zero tolerance for semi-corrupt political appointments,” he
said, a clear reference to characters such as Itamar Ben-Gvir, the
far-right nebbish who holds the position of minister for national
security. “Israelis are under too many threats and exposed on too many
fronts to accept a mediocre, amateurish, self-interested rule by people
who are not trustworthy.”
The Tibon
family’s story is testimony that on Oct. 7, Israel’s people were far
better than its government. Amir told me of sitting with a member of his
kibbutz’s security team “who fought this insane battle, underarmed”
against the hundred-odd Hamas terrorists who entered the Nahal Oz
kibbutz that morning. “You cannot avoid a sense of despair when you see
the leadership we have,” he told me. “And you can’t avoid a sense of
pride when you see the citizens who saved lives on that day.”
There were other points of hope mixed into
the general gloom of Israeli life today. I met reservists who had
dropped busy careers and flown in from Chicago, Dubai and Melbourne,
Australia, to rejoin their old units. A sergeant on Elgarat’s staff who
goes by the nickname Cholo — he was D.J.’ing large parties in Brazil but
flew back to Israel immediately after Oct. 7 to serve — was clear about
where he stood: “I am not supporting this government, but I will go to
the army.”
Not many countries can
inspire such a willingness to sacrifice in times of crisis. It’s how
Israel pulled through in the past, particularly during the Yom Kippur
War of 1973, where a costly victory helped ease the pain of an initial
debacle and where an eventual peace redeemed the price of both.
Also hopeful was the willingness of Israelis to acknowledge failure — and to seek to learn from it.
Nobody
in Israel, including in the highest echelons of its defense
establishment, disputes the military and intelligence sides of the
failure. The lessons from it, tactical and strategic, are sure to be
digested in the months ahead. Chief among them: Don’t try to answer a
strategic problem, such as Hamas’s rule in Gaza, with a purely
technogical solution, like the various wonder weapons that were supposed
to keep the group in check.
But the country’s
long-term fortunes will depend on its ability to recognize and correct
the political failures that led to Oct. 7. Over dozens of conversations
here, a few core questions emerged:
Will
Israelis finally see the danger of electing tough-talking narcissists
who practice the politics of mass polarization? And will they understand
that politics in a Jewish state — which is as much a family as it is a
polity — can’t be conducted by one narrow majority jamming its ideas
down the throats of a bitterly opposed minority?
Will
they see the folly of dividing themselves into a multitude of separate
and mutually antagonistic tribes — Jewish and Arab; Ashkenazi and
Mizrahi; left wing and right wing; secular and religious — so that they
can tear one another to political pieces in full view of their foes?
Will
they recognize that Israel’s single greatest strategic asset is the
devoted patriotism that its people feel for their state — a feeling that
will inevitably suffer if their government repeatedly comprises
freeloaders, bigots, tax cheats and ideological arsonists?
Will they understand that the ultimate purpose of Zionism is self-rule
for the Jewish people, not indefinite rule over others? A plausible
Palestinian state living peacefully alongside Israel may be years or
even decades away, given the wretched state of Palestinian politics. But
Israel also has a long-term responsibility to safeguard the possibility
of such a state against attempts to abort it.
Finally,
will Israelis remember that the responsibility that falls on them now
is a responsibility not for them alone? “I have a premonition that will
not leave me,” the philosopher Eric Hoffer wrote in 1968. “As it goes
with Israel so will it go with all of us. Should Israel perish, the
Holocaust will be upon us.”
FOR ADDITIONAL PHOTOS:
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/10/opinion/israel-national-crisis.html?unlocked_article_code=1.9Uw.GoNO.XYvqN9F9TJz1&smid=fb-share
I'm not the only person to say this: After what happened on Yom Kippur at Dizengoff Square, we had this coming.
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ReplyDeleteAfter what happened on Yom Kippur at Dizengoff Square, we had this coming.