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Tuesday, February 24, 2026
Preventive or Preemptive? The Pros and Cons of a Potential US Strike on Iran
2 comments:
Garnel Ironheart
said...
The problem is the goal. In WW2, it was total victory no matter what the cost and the Allies and Soviet population knew this and were prepared to make sacrifices. Today the American people are not prepared to make sacrifices. They may not like Iran but they're not prepared to see 10 000 body bags draped in American flags coming home. In addition, MAGA is already draped in anti-Semitic "We don't want our boys dying for the Jews!" rhetoric. Israel also has little interest in having more of the country hit by large missles, especially during an election year. There is also the issue of governing. Like the US found out in Iraq, it's easy to overthrow a government. Replacing it with a functioning one is the trick and look how that worked out there. Iran is the same. There is no alternative rebel government prepared to walk in and keep things running. A strike that ends the regime could cause massive choas and the US will ahve to own that. They don't want it. So the calculation this time are different. It's how to smack Iran hard and quick without losing any men or equipment while also minimizing its missle attaks on Israel and convincing the mullahs to just surrender and leave.
Iran is different than Iraq. Iran has a far more educated population than Iraq and a previous history of stable government, although I do not think that Iran will fully return to a dictatorship by the Shah-in-waiting. There will have to be some sort of accommodation in a new government for the army as well as the mullahs, but not a yield of control.
2 comments:
The problem is the goal.
In WW2, it was total victory no matter what the cost and the Allies and Soviet population knew this and were prepared to make sacrifices.
Today the American people are not prepared to make sacrifices. They may not like Iran but they're not prepared to see 10 000 body bags draped in American flags coming home. In addition, MAGA is already draped in anti-Semitic "We don't want our boys dying for the Jews!" rhetoric.
Israel also has little interest in having more of the country hit by large missles, especially during an election year.
There is also the issue of governing. Like the US found out in Iraq, it's easy to overthrow a government. Replacing it with a functioning one is the trick and look how that worked out there. Iran is the same. There is no alternative rebel government prepared to walk in and keep things running. A strike that ends the regime could cause massive choas and the US will ahve to own that. They don't want it.
So the calculation this time are different. It's how to smack Iran hard and quick without losing any men or equipment while also minimizing its missle attaks on Israel and convincing the mullahs to just surrender and leave.
Iran is different than Iraq. Iran has a far more educated population than Iraq and a previous history of stable government, although I do not think that Iran will fully return to a dictatorship by the Shah-in-waiting. There will have to be some sort of accommodation in a new government for the army as well as the mullahs, but not a yield of control.
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