An Unorthodox Theory: What Comes Next In The Iran War ---- Trump Waiting For His "Churchill" Moment

 

"Success is not final, failure is not fatal: it is the courage to continue that counts"

Donald Trump desperately wants his Churchill moment. The difference is that Churchill walked into the fire while Trump has spent his entire life waiting for the smoke to clear before entering the room.

That is not merely a criticism of his character. It is a criticism of his political instincts.

There is an unorthodox theory developing in my mind about what comes next in the Iran War. It is a theory based not upon military strategy, but upon understanding Donald Trump's political DNA. Throughout his business and political life, Trump has demonstrated a remarkable ability to avoid owning failure while simultaneously claiming ownership of success. Whether in business, politics or foreign affairs, he understands one immutable truth of public life—the man standing at the podium announcing victory is often remembered far longer than the men who sacrificed to achieve it.

I believe Donald Trump wants Iran defeated. I believe he wants the Iranian nuclear program destroyed. I believe he wants the Ayatollahs removed from power. More importantly, I believe he wants history to record that all of it happened under Donald J. Trump.

He simply does not want to own the risks associated with getting there.

Therein lies my unorthodox theory.

Donald Trump will ultimately want Israel to initiate the kinetic action. He will want Israel to absorb the military risks and the diplomatic isolation that inevitably accompanies existential wars. He will want Israel to destroy Iran's military infrastructure, decapitate its command structure and bring the regime to the precipice of collapse. He will want Israel to accomplish what few nations in history have ever been asked to accomplish—to destroy an enemy committed not merely to its defeat, but to its annihilation.

And if/when Israel succeeds? If the Islamic Republic begins to collapse under the weight of military defeat and popular revolt? If Israel succeeds in capturing or neutralizing Iran's most fortified nuclear facilities, including Pickaxe Mountain? Then—and only then—I believe America enters the war.

Not to initiate it. To finish it.

The timing would be politically perfect. Donald Trump would become the President who destroyed Iran's nuclear ambitions without having begun another endless American war in the Middle East. America would be celebrated throughout the Western world as the indispensable ally that secured civilization's victory over one of the most dangerous regimes of the modern era.

And Donald Trump would receive precisely what he values most—the ownership of history's final chapter.

The cameras would belong to Washington. The speeches would be delivered from the White House. The world would hear that peace has finally come to the Middle East because of American strength and Donald Trump's leadership.

There would, of course, be truth in that claim. American military power remains indispensable to the security architecture of the free world. But there is another truth that history has too often forgotten—there is a profound moral distinction between climbing the mountain and planting the flag once others have reached the summit.

Israel has been here before.

In 1948, she fought alone. In 1967, she fought against impossible odds. In 1973, she paid for intelligence failures with the blood of her children. On October 7th, she once again learned that when existential threats emerge, she has only one guarantee—that she will bury her own dead before the world decides what position it wishes to take.

The Jewish people understand something about history that larger nations often forget. We understand that existential wars are never theoretical exercises conducted in think tanks and television studios. They are measured in funerals, not headlines.

This is why I worry that far too many Israelis and American Jews have once again fallen in love with personalities instead of interests. Donald Trump is not President of Israel. He is President of the United States. His obligation is to America's interests and to his political legacy. To expect otherwise is to fundamentally misunderstand both foreign policy and Donald Trump himself.

If American interests and Israeli interests converge—as they often do—that is a blessing. If they temporarily diverge, no one should be surprised when Washington acts accordingly. This has been true of every American President and will remain true long after Donald Trump leaves public life.

The problem with personality cults is that they inevitably produce strategic blindness.

There is another uncomfortable truth that must be said. Donald Trump has repeatedly demonstrated that patience in negotiation frequently masks impatience for political victories. He seeks grand moments that can be compressed into headlines and remembered by history. No headline is greater than this one: President Trump Ends Iran's Nuclear Threat and Brings Peace to the Middle East.

That headline has undoubtedly already been written somewhere in the imagination of Donald Trump.

But Churchill moments cannot be manufactured. Churchill earned his moment while London burned around him. Harry Truman earned his by making difficult and unpopular decisions. Great leaders do not merely arrive for history's closing ceremonies. They accept responsibility when history remains uncertain and failure remains possible.

Leadership is not standing beneath the banner of victory. Leadership is standing before one's people when defeat remains a possibility.

The Talmud teaches us that one who saves a single life saves an entire world. Judaism teaches something equally profound about leadership—that responsibility always precedes honor. First comes sacrifice. Only then comes glory.

Perhaps I am entirely wrong about Donald Trump. Perhaps America will stand shoulder to shoulder with Israel from the opening moments of any future confrontation with Iran. I pray that proves to be true.

But if my unorthodox theory is correct, Donald Trump is waiting—not for the beginning of the story—but for its final act.

He is waiting for Israel to bring down the curtain on the Islamic Republic, to scale the mountain, to absorb the risks, and to make victory possible. Only then will America arrive to deliver the final blow and claim its rightful share of the triumph.

And Donald Trump will finally have his Churchill moment. The irony, of course, is that Churchill never waited for one.

 

REPUBLISHED

https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/an-unorthodox-theory-whats-next-for-iran-trumps-churchill-moment/