Trump: I’m calling Netanyahu ‘right now… to tell him not to retaliate’ for Iran’s missile attacks
For nearly a decade, Americans have been told that Donald Trump possesses a mysterious genius when it comes to foreign policy. Every contradiction is explained away as strategy. Every reversal is called flexibility. Every blunder is repackaged as three-dimensional chess. And nowhere is this mythology more dangerous than in the Middle East.
It is time to stop assuming Donald Trump knows what he is doing.
The assumption itself has become a substitute for evidence. When negotiations fail, supporters claim that failure was the plan. When allies are confused, they call it unpredictability. When adversaries gain leverage, they insist Trump is merely setting a trap. The pattern has become almost theological. The leader is presumed infallible, and therefore every outcome, no matter how embarrassing, is interpreted as proof of wisdom.
The Middle East, unfortunately, is not a reality television set. It is not a Manhattan real-estate negotiation. It is a region where weakness is detected instantly, where political theater has consequences, and where enemies study actions rather than campaign slogans. In such an environment, confidence without competence can be extraordinarily expensive.
The problem is not that Trump lacks confidence. The problem is that confidence has become a replacement for knowledge. The Middle East is a graveyard filled with the reputations of leaders who believed they could improvise their way through ancient rivalries, religious passions, tribal loyalties, and geopolitical calculations. History is littered with statesmen who assumed they could bend the region to their will only to discover that the region had different plans.
Consider the endless fascination with negotiations. Trump approaches diplomacy as though every problem has a deal waiting to be signed. Yet not every adversary is seeking the same outcome. Revolutionary regimes often value ideology more than prosperity. Fanatics frequently prefer confrontation over compromise. Nations pursuing long-term strategic objectives are not necessarily interested in helping an American president create a favorable headline.
This is particularly relevant when dealing with Iran. The assumption that Tehran views negotiations through the same lens as a New York businessman misunderstands the nature of the regime. Iran's leadership has spent decades demonstrating patience, ideological commitment, and a willingness to absorb pain in pursuit of strategic goals. To imagine that a clever sales pitch or a dramatic summit automatically changes that reality is not sophistication. It is wishful thinking.
What is most striking is how often Trump's defenders confuse motion with progress. Announcements become achievements. Meetings become victories. Negotiations become breakthroughs before any breakthrough has actually occurred. The public is encouraged to judge intentions rather than results.
But foreign policy is ultimately measured by outcomes. Are America's allies stronger or weaker? Are America's enemies more constrained or more confident? Is deterrence increasing or declining? These are not partisan questions. They are practical ones.
The cult of political personality has infected much of American discourse. Many critics assume Trump is a fool. Many supporters assume he is a genius. Both positions abandon the discipline of sober analysis. The wiser approach is to examine events as they unfold and judge them by their consequences rather than by emotional attachment to the man himself.
For those of us who grew up studying Jewish history, this lesson should sound familiar. Survival was rarely achieved through wishful thinking. It required clear eyes, skepticism, realism, and the ability to distinguish rhetoric from reality. Communities that confused hope with strategy often paid a terrible price.
Donald Trump may succeed in some areas of Middle East policy. He may fail in others. But serious observers should reject the childish assumption that every move is evidence of hidden brilliance. Statesmanship is not magic. Leadership is not measured by confidence alone.
The Middle East is one of the most unforgiving regions on earth. It has humbled empires, shattered illusions, and exposed the arrogance of leaders far more experienced than Donald Trump. Before assuming that he alone possesses a master plan invisible to everyone else, Americans should demand something far simpler:
Proof.
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