One of the most tense periods in Israeli history was the three weeks preceding the Six Day War in 1967 , a period known as the “waiting period” or tekufat hahamtana.
This
was a period of anxiety, uncertainty, and preparation within Israel as
the country faced the imminent threat of an all-out regional war. Egypt had closed the Straits of Tiran, an act of war, and the rhetoric from the Arab lands was chilling.
Only
19 years old and isolated internationally, there was genuine concern
that the country might not survive. Anxiety was palpable, with mass
graves being dug in parks as a grim precaution.
This
anxiety-filled period ended on June 5, 1967, when Israel preempted its
enemies, destroying the Egyptian Air Force on the ground in a matter of
hours and changing the course of history.
That
period comes to mind today as the country is again gripped by
apprehension, waiting for a response from Iran and Hezbollah – either
together, separately, or with other non-state actors in the “axis of
resistance” – to the twin high-profile assassinations last week of
Hezbollah’s Chief of Staff, Fuad Shukr in Beirut, and Hamas’s leader,
Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran.
An anti-Israel billboard is seen next to the Iranian flag It
would be wrong to say that the country is panicking – it most
definitely is not. Brisk sales on home generators, bottled water, canned
tuna, and salami are signs of preparedness, not panic.
Panic
comes in the form of people clamoring to leave the country, refusing to
leave their homes, or seeing daily life come to a standstill. That is
not what Israel is experiencing.
It is, however, experiencing anxiety. And who can blame it? With Hezbollah
and Iranian leaders threatening retaliation and with the media full of
endless speculation about what kind of retaliation to expect and when,
the nervousness is understandable.
The
question, however, is whether similar anxiety is being felt in Beirut
and Tehran. Are they, too, stocking up on tuna, bottled water, and
salami? Are they wondering when Israel will hit, how, and from what
direction?
If not, why not?
Something
about the current situation feels off. Two arch-terrorists are
eliminated – one in Beirut with a US-issued bounty on his head, the
other in Tehran without Israel even claiming responsibility – yet Israel
is the one adopting a defensive posture, what is called in Hebrew,
konnenut sfiga, bracing for an attack.
Instead
of Israel being in a defensive posture for eliminating the terrorists,
Beirut and Tehran should be the ones worried – since they harbored them.
Even
more than this period being reminiscent of the tekufat hahamtana, it is
reminiscent of early April after Israel killed Islamic Revolutionary
Guard Corps commander Mohammad Reza Zahedi in Damascus when Israel
braced for an Iranian response that came in the form of over 300 drone,
cruise, and ballistic missiles fired at the country.
Watching
television broadcasters announce on a Saturday night in mid-April when
the drones, missiles, and rockets were scheduled to arrive was like
monitoring the arrival screen at Ben-Gurion Airport. It was a bizarre
feeling: you saw a bullet headed in your direction and just prayed that
the country’s defenses would work and the bullet would either be
intercepted or miss its mark. In other words, someone was trying to kill
you, and you just prayed they would not succeed.
One
problem with the current situation is that it engenders a feeling of
powerlessness among the population: waiting for the second shoe to drop,
waiting for the inevitable.
But
Israel is far from powerless. Rather than just waiting to see what
happens – or how many people are killed – before responding, it should
already be projecting its power. If it does not want to exacerbate the
situation or is being held back by the US from taking further action,
the country should at least make it clear that any type of attack will
be met with immediate and overwhelming force. Planning for such a
response should, as it certainly is, already be well underway.
This
time the threats need to be backed up with immediate action, not, as
has been the case up until now, with empty rhetoric from Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, or Chief of Staff
Herzi Halevi about “sending Lebanon back to the Stone Age” – threats
issued so often it is doubtful anyone takes them seriously. This time,
the response needs to be immediate and devastating.
PROJECTING
POWER is also crucial for the country’s morale. Israel is not helpless.
It has one of the strongest militaries in the world. The population
needs to be reminded of this and see it to maintain psychological
well-being. Feeling powerless is detrimental, and this defensive crouch
in the face of Iranian and Hezbollah threats saps morale.
The
hit on Shukr came only after 12 children and youth were killed by
Hezbollah rocket fire at Majdal Shams. Only after this atrocity was
Shukr assassinated, and that reinforces a bad pattern: if an attack is
“successful” and causes casualties, Israel responds; if not, it will let
it slide.
This
approach is flawed. Had Israel acted to destroy Hamas’s capabilities
after the terrorist organization fired countless rocket attacks since
2001, rather than waiting for a mass casualty event before responding,
the current situation might have been quite different.
Why are we on the defensive? It
is a mistake for the country to be in this defensive crouch. It sends
the wrong message to Israel’s enemies and to its own people.
That said, there are similarities and differences between the current waiting period and the one that preceded the Six Day War.
First,
in 1967, there were doubts about whether the Israeli army could
withstand a coordinated attack by neighboring Arab states. Today, while
there is concern about potential damage, there is greater confidence in
the army’s ability to manage the threat.
Israel’s
military capabilities were more limited in 1967; today, it has a much
mightier force and the most formidable missile defense system in the
world.
Second,
in 1967, Israel felt completely isolated in the world, especially after
Egypt demanded the removal of UN peacekeeping forces from Sinai, to
which the UN acquiesced. There was also skepticism about the level of
support Israel could expect from the world.
Today,
the US has sent warships to the region to assist Israel in batting
drones, rockets, and missiles out of the sky, as it did in April.
Additionally, there is coordination with a regional defense alliance
established after the Abraham Accords under the leadership of the US
Army Central Command (CENTCOM). This represents a significant regional
alliance.
Finally, there’s a significant difference in the nature of the existential threat facing Israel now compared to 1967.
Back
then, there was a genuine fear that a war could lead to Israel’s
destruction – that enemy armies would invade, conquer, and eradicate the
Jewish state. Today, while Israel still views itself as engaged in an
existential battle, the immediacy and nature of the threat have changed.
The
current concern is not that an immediate attack by Iran, Hezbollah, and
their allies would destroy the state outright, at least not until Iran
gets nuclear capabilities. Instead, the fear centers on the potential
for a prolonged war of attrition if Israel fails to decisively defeat or
deter its enemies now. Such a war could gradually grind down the
country, making life increasingly difficult for its citizens, destroying
the economy, and threatening Israel’s long-term viability.
This
persistent threat – also an existential one – demands proactive
measures. Israel cannot afford to wait passively for attacks. The
country must take preemptive action or respond swiftly and decisively to
secure its future and survival.
https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/defense-news/article-813267?
3 comments:
Because until today everyone says we started The Six Day War.
Never mind Nasser closed the Suez canal and that that Syria and Egypt lined up their armies on the border. Israel shot first so they started the war. Bad Israel!
That is probably why Israel is waiting now. yes, they could probably identify the main missile launching sites and air force bases and knock them out tonight but the same world that doesn't have a problem with Iran threatening to nuke Israel will quickly condemn Israel's "unwarranted act of aggression"
At the cost of how many Jewish lives? Who cares, we can't get it right, never did, never will! MIGA - MAKE ISRAEL GREAT AGAIN!
go first and win
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