There is a familiar American pattern, and it is ugly in its predictability. Trump courts applause with swagger, toys with danger, cuts corners in the name of “strength,” and when the wreckage arrives, someone else is left holding the bag. In Donald Trump’s case, the bag is almost certainly going to be handed to Israel, to the Zionists, and, if history is any guide, to the Jews themselves. The deal may be sold as a triumph. The fallout will be sold as somebody else’s fault.
This is the central fraud of Trump’s Middle East posture: the theatrics are his, the slogans are his, the grandiose promises are his — but the blame is always transferable. He wants the credit for toughness without the discipline of statecraft, the glory of “peace” without the burden of outcomes.WHEN the Iran track collapses, if the Middle East erupts, if America is embarrassed, if allies are betrayed, he will not stand there and say, “I misread everything.” No. He will look for a scapegoat. And the oldest, easiest scapegoat in Western civilization is still available on the shelf.
That is what makes this moment so dangerous for Israel and for Jews everywhere. Not merely the possibility of a bad agreement with Iran, but the political architecture around failure. Trump does not operate like a statesman who accepts responsibility; he operates like a showman who survives by blame-shifting. The minute the “deal” starts unraveling — and these deals so often unravel — the story will not be “Trump was naïve.” The story will be “Israel meddled,” “the Zionists pushed too hard,” “the Jews wanted war,” “the lobby demanded too much,” “the allies ruined it.” The accusation does not need to be coherent. It only needs to be useful.
And that is the point. Trump does not need to hate Jews to be dangerous to Jews. He only needs to be reckless, vain, and desperate to preserve his own myth. History is full of leaders who, when cornered, discovered that blaming the Jews was the cheapest form of political insurance. Trump is not a thinker; he is an accumulator of resentments. He has spent years training a coalition to believe that every failure is somebody else’s sabotage. That is the raw material of antisemitic politics: not always explicit hatred, but the constant preparation of a scapegoat.
Israel should understand this better than anyone. There is no such thing as a bad deal that stays isolated. A weak agreement with Iran is not merely a diplomatic mistake; it is an invitation to future chaos. Tehran will pocket every concession it can, buy time, reposition itself, and wait for the next American president, or the next crisis, or the next moment of Western fatigue. And when that happens, the blame will not be assigned to the man who signed the paper with too much bravado and too little seriousness. It will be assigned to the people who were never invited to write the paper in the first place.
This is how the trap is set. First comes the overpromise. Then comes the compromise dressed up as victory. Then comes the predictable Iranian cheating, the regional escalation, the diplomatic humiliation. And finally comes the great American ritual of deflection: someone must have “undermined” the plan. Someone must have “pushed him too far.” Someone must have “made it impossible.” In Washington, that someone is often Israel. In the fever swamps, it is the Jews.
The tragedy is that Trump’s style invites exactly the sort of moral laziness that antisemitism feeds on. He reduces everything to transaction and vanity. He thinks alliances are loyalty tests, not strategic necessities. He treats adversaries as if they were reality-show contestants. He thinks the world is impressed by noise. But the Middle East does not care about noise. Iran does not fear bluster; it exploits it. And when the inevitable consequences arrive, the man who sold himself as the master negotiator will need a villain more than he needs the truth.
So yes, Israel and Jews should beware. Not because every criticism of Israel is antisemitic — it is not — but because in the Trump era, criticism can be weaponized, and bad outcomes can be converted into ethnic accusation with astonishing speed. A failed deal becomes an accusation. An Iranian provocation becomes a talking point. An Israeli objection becomes “sabotage.” And suddenly the ancient poison is back in circulation, wrapped in modern populist packaging.
The worst may not be the deal itself. The worst may be the aftermath: the blame, the resentment, the conspiracy, the ugly old story told in a new American accent. That is the danger Trump brings to the table. Not only bad policy, but a political culture in which Jews are made to pay for other people’s fantasies.
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Bloomberg and CNN say they have obtained the 14-point memorandum of understanding (MOU).
White House communications director Steven Cheung said Wednesday morning the reported text “does not reflect the language of the actual MOU.”
Here are the key provisions in the reported agreement:
Lebanon included in ceasefire
The agreement would end fighting on “all fronts,” including Lebanon, where Israel has been seeking to destroy Hezbollah, the Iranian proxy group that controls much of the country’s south.
That’s sure to further inflame tensions between Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has been shut out of talks between the U.S. and Iran.
Israel has said it will not withdraw forces from border regions of Lebanon and maintains the right to defend itself against Hezbollah.
60 days for final deal
Many of the key details are punted to a final deal to be hammered out within 60 days, “extendable by mutual consent.”
Trump said Wednesday the MOU was not “final,” warning he would resume bombing if Iran doesn’t “behave.”
Reopens Strait of Hormuz
Under the memorandum, both sides would agree to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to its prewar levels within 30 days of the MOU being signed.
The U.S. would lift its naval blockade immediately, while Iran would commit to removing “technical obstacles” and neutralizing mines in the waterway.
There have been public disagreements over whether Iran could impose tolls on ships after the 60-day window expires.
Creates $300B reconstruction fund
The MOU says the United States, “together with its regional partners,” will ensure the financing of at least $300 billion for a reconstruction fund for Iran. It says the “implementation mechanism of this plan” will be determined as part of the final agreement.
Trump said Wednesday the U.S. won’t contribute to the fund, but said he couldn’t stop other countries from investing in Iran.
US commits to ending sanctions
As part of the final agreement, the U.S. commits to ending “all types of sanctions” on Iran. That includes sanctions approved by the United Nations and International Atomic Energy Agency, as well as unilateral sanctions.
Iran commits to no nuclear weapons
Iran reiterates that it won’t produce nuclear weapons under the deal.
Iran made a similar commitment under the nuclear deal signed during the Obama administration, and was reportedly willing to make it again during negotiations before Trump and Netanyahu launched the war on February 28.
The agreement leaves the fate of Iran’s stockpile of weapons-grade uranium and “all other mutually agreed nuclear-related issues” to the final agreement.
Trump has said this provision achieves “99.9 percent” of his goal of preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
Maintains ‘status quo’ for Iran’s nuclear program
The deal does not explicitly bar Iran from enriching uranium, instead maintaining the “status quo” of its nuclear program.
Vice President Vance said this week that Iran’s ability to access funds would depend on its willingness to make key concessions.
The two sides have reportedly agreed in principle to an enrichment moratorium, but haggled over how long it would last.
US waives sanctions on Iran’s oil exports
While most U.S. sanctions would only be lifted as part of a final agreement, it would immediately take steps allowing Iran to resume oil exports onto the global market.
The reported text says the Treasury Department “will issue waivers for exports of Iranian crude oil, petrochemical products and their derivatives, and all related services, including banking, insurance, transportation, and the like.”
Critics of the deal say this gives Iran a crucial economic lifeline that will allow it to begin rebuilding its military without making any concessions on its nuclear program.
Unfreezes Iranian funds
Another provision would unfreeze Iranian funds and assets held abroad, “in light of the progress of negotiations towards a final agreement.”
That would appear to give the U.S. discretion to unfreeze the funds during negotiations, rather than waiting for a final deal. There are no restrictions in the MOU on how the funds could be used.
Final deal subject to UN Security Council approval
The MOU says any final agreement will be approved through a binding resolution of the United Nations Security Council.
Trump also said on Tuesday that he’d send any deal with Iran to Congress for approval.
The Obama-era Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action was also approved by the UN Security Council and reviewed by Congress under the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act.
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Though the details of the deal remain murky — a telling indicator of its likely shoddiness, since the administration would surely trumpet the terms of a strong agreement — it’s already clear that Trump has betrayed his promise to the Iranian people, after they were massacred in January to quell antigovernment protests, that “help is on its way.” As in Venezuela, to say nothing of China and Russia, this administration’s message to oppressed people everywhere is that their rights come last.
Trump is also on his way to betraying Israel, our principal ally in this fight, by pushing Jerusalem to stand down in its effort to stop Hezbollah’s attacks on its north, in that way handing Tehran the victory of creating a diplomatic linkage between Lebanon and Hormuz. If Iran is now allowed to extract some kind of service fee for permitting ships to transit the Strait, Trump will have also betrayed our allies in the Persian Gulf by giving Iran financial and strategic leverage to which it has no right, and which it didn’t previously have.
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